BlackMoon Nexus

Trust & Epistemic Status

What Nexus can support in public, how we classify evidence, and where capital boundaries sit. This page is the honesty contract — not a performance dashboard.

Tier 0 · NO VERIFIED EDGE Tier 1 · live_influence=false Tier 2 · ADVANCED PRODUCTION RESEARCH PLATFORM

Domain status loads with JavaScript · static fallbacks below remain valid for crawlers

DATA / EXPORT SYNCING

TRADING AWAITING

RESEARCH Research Watch Mode

INFLUENCE OFF

Static methodology as-of 2026-08-12 · money engine breakout SSOT

A · What Nexus claims (evidence-supported only)

BlackMoon Nexus is a proof-gated crypto market research and micro-capital execution platform. Agents and families propose; evidence and gates decide; the live micro-book is a lab bench, not a marketed fund.

Supported: Live exchange connectivity + operator stack exist; decide/execute path is real when unblocked.
Supported: Alpha Factory V3 searches under cost/null/WF gates; failures recorded as KILL success.
Supported: Public exports publish sanitized gate stories, missed winners, and virtual outcomes — not trade signals.
Supported: Execution Truth is the after-fee money SSOT internally; Event Core is SHADOW only.
Not claimed: Verified profitable edge, guaranteed returns, autonomous fund, agents placing orders, or Event Core as PnL authority.

B · Epistemic status model

Every public artifact should carry one primary class. See /public/trust/epistemic_schema.json for machine contract.

PROVENEnd-to-end lineage with inspectable IDs and matching Execution Truth hop.

OBSERVEDMeasured export or fill-backed fact without full causal chain.

RESEARCHAlpha Factory, V1/V2 warehouses, hypothesis registry — no live steering.

ADVISORYAgents 1–8 ticks — propose only, never order authority.

SHADOWEvent Core dual-write — observability, not money SSOT.

FALSIFIEDKILL / FAIL under preregistered gates — legitimate research outcome.

UNKNOWNNot traced publicly; do not infer causality.

C · What is LIVE (domain-separated)

DATA/EXPORT LIVE means the public cron wrote a fresh snapshot — not that trading is profitable or unblocked.

TRADING posture is independent: engine may be READY while slots, dust, or IP ban block entries.

RESEARCH loops (AF, V1/V2) may run without influencing production while live_influence=false.

INFLUENCE OFF freezes research→live promotion; survivors queue ≠ live book changes.

D · What can touch capital (governance boundary)

Production path only: Live intelligence score → Decision engine → Governance gate → Production Trader (when unblocked).
Blocked by default: Alpha Factory → Production Trader (INFLUENCE OFF).
Never on public path: Research exports, agent ticks, shadow corpus, Strategy League virtual WR.
Operator gates: Risk envelope, slots, kill switch, human-gated adaptation — Command Center private plane.

E · What NO_VERIFIED_EDGE means

NO_VERIFIED_EDGE is a governance property from the money engine — not a brand slogan. It means after-fee lifetime economics have not cleared promotion gates for any family.

Metric	Value (methodology)	Source
Lifetime net (after fees)	−0.729636 USDC	Execution Truth SSOT
Profit factor	0.9601	Money engine breakout
Expectancy / trade	−0.002625 USDC	Money engine breakout
Verdict	C · NO_EDGE_CURRENT_INFORMATION_SET	Money engine breakout
Family survivors	0	Alpha Factory registry
live_influence	false	Operator policy

No wallet address, open positions, order IDs, or intraday blotter appear here by design.

F · Promotion methodology ladder

Research proposes; gates decide. KILL is success — it prevents silent promotion.

Hypothesis — novelty class (GENUINELY_NEW / VARIANT / DUPLICATE)
Cost engine — conservative fee model; partial coverage flagged
Null / placebo — beat null under preregistered stress
Walk-forward — TRAIN → VALID → FORWARD; sealed HOLDOUT
Multiple testing — BH-FDR + lineage discipline
SURVIVE — enters survivor queue (0 today)
Human + influence gate — requires live_influence=true policy change (currently forbidden)
Micro lab bench — measured under Execution Truth, not marketing PnL

G · Current limitations (by domain)

Economic

NO_VERIFIED_EDGE — lifetime net negative after fees
€10–25/day income unsupported; €50–100 unrealistic at ~144 USDC equity

Research / AF

Campaign 001 not ready; auto-campaign forbidden
Cost engine PARTIAL_CONSERVATIVE; G-H04 FAIL / sparse midjoin
0 OOS survivors on V2 orthogonal streams

Authority

Event Core not PnL SSOT; Phase 1c read BLOCKED
UI cards ≠ running services ≠ profitable edge

Runtime

Single-VPS concentration; historical OOM / IP-ban scars
Micro-capital scale — not institutional execution venue

H · What remains unknown

Live docker env flags / blockers / RSS without fresh operator probe
Whether every V1/V2 sidecar is looping on VPS at this instant
Complete scheduler wiring map for all engine/research/* modules
CF feeder running state without status read
Full public PROVEN decision→fill chain (Evidence Packet often PARTIAL)

I · Falsified / killed research

Aggregate public-safe summary (methodology — not raw experiment joins):

7+ kill results imported into AF memory (bootstrap pack)
4 VARIANT_OF_KILLED families in novelty space scan
0 promotable survivors — nothing cleared SURVIVE → influence path
G-H04 primary midjoin FAIL — economic test sparse at authoritative join

Detailed experiment IDs remain operator-private. KILL records are research success, not embarrassment.

J · What would change claims

We would remove or revise NO_VERIFIED_EDGE only if money engine SSOT shows:

After-fee lifetime expectancy > 0 with preregistered confidence
At least one family clears SURVIVE under cost/null/WF/FDR gates
Forward epoch meets ideal_500 + G-H04 authoritative midjoin thresholds
Operator explicitly enables influence policy (separate governance act)

Until then, green UI, virtual league ranks, or export LIVE must never imply verified profitability.

K · Security / privacy boundary

Public site: read-only exports — no wallet, positions, canonical PnL blotter, thresholds, or tokens
Command Center, extension cockpit, operator APIs: private plane
Public JSON fields audited against safe-field matrix (P3 evidence packet)
Waitlist email only — not investment advice or managed accounts

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